Grecia y Turquía superan su tráfico prepandemia. España, a un -23% de 2019

Los mercados del sureste de Europa recuperaron sustancialmente su tráfico de pasajeros de 2019, en los meses pico de verano, julio y agosto. Concretamente, Turquía y Grecia superaron los niveles previos a la pandemia de llegadas internacionales en un +9% y un +2%, respectivamente. Si bien ningún otro destino de país importante se recuperó a las cifras observadas en 2019, Eslovenia, con un -7%; Islandia, un -8%; y Portugal, un -10%, se acercaron. España, un -23%.

Albania también superó su tráfico entrante prepandémico en un 28%, si bien es un destino relativamente pequeño, con menos del 1% de la cuota de mercado de las llegadas de vuelos europeos.

En cuanto a los destinos urbanos con mejor desempeño, Estambul se colocó a la cabeza, que registró un aumento del 2% en las llegadas de vuelos. Le siguen Atenas, con un -7%, Reikiavik y Oporto, ambos con un -8%, y Málaga, con un -13% menos.

La palanca de Turquía

Los principales factores que impulsan el sólido desempeño de Turquía incluyen una disminución continua en el valor de la lira turca y su apertura al mercado ruso, desde donde se prohibieron los vuelos directos a la mayor parte de Europa.

Imagen: ForwardKeys

En el verano de 2019, los rusos representaron el 4% de todas las llegadas a Europa, mientras que en 2022 se redujo drásticamente. Grecia ha tenido un gran desempeño como destino durante la pandemia al implementar restricciones de viaje COVID-19 relativamente amigables para los visitantes.

Los destinos europeos podrían haber atraído a más visitantes durante los meses de verano si la industria de la aviación hubiera podido hacer frente mejor al aumento de la demanda de viajes a finales de la primavera y principios del verano. Sin las interrupciones, ForwardKeys estima que la recuperación de las reservas de vuelos dentro de Europa habría sido cinco puntos porcentuales más alta.

Mercados de origen

El análisis de ForwardKeys de los mercados de origen revela que, dentro de Europa, Grecia ha demostrado ser el más resistente, con salidas a destinos europeos en julio y agosto que se equiparan a los niveles de 2019. Le siguen Polonia, un -9%; España, 12% menos, Reino Unido, 13% menos, Dinamarca, 14% menos y Portugal 15% menos. En general, las salidas intraeuropeas se redujeron un 22%.

El mercado extraeuropeo más fuerte fueron los Estados Unidos, con solo un -5% menos que en 2019. Le siguieron Colombia e Israel, ambos con un 9 % menos, Sudáfrica con un 10 % menos, México con un 12% menos y Canadá y Kuwait, ambos con un 13 %. abajo. En general, los mercados de origen extraeuropeos cayeron un 31 %.

Perspectivas de demanda 2022 y 2023

Si bien se habla mucho de que la recesión y la inflación dañan las perspectivas de una recuperación de los viajes después de la pandemia, la tendencia sigue siendo positiva.

En julio y agosto, los viajes aéreos en toda Europa se redujeron un 26%, sin embargo, las perspectivas para los próximos tres meses muestran que, a 31 de agosto, las reservas de vuelos estaban un 21% por debajo del período equivalente en 2019.

Turquía y Grecia concentra reservas un +20% y un +5% que en 2019, respectivamente. Les siguen como destinos más reservados Portugal, con un -3%; Islandia, un -7%; y España, un -15%.

Los mercados de origen más fuertes están liderados por el Reino Unido, donde la demanda de vuelos de salida para los próximos tres meses es solo un 2% inferior en comparación con antes de la pandemia. Le siguen España, un 3% por detrás, EE. UU., un 5% por detrás, Irlanda un 6% por detrás y Alemania un 11% por detrás.

Fuente: Hosteltur

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